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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://chur.chu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/30851


    Title: 動態城際大眾運具運量競爭模式與分析
    Authors: 羅仕京
    Lo, Shih-Ching
    Contributors: 運輸科技與物流管理學系
    Transportation Technology and Logistics Management
    Keywords: 運量預測;動態競爭模式;迭代法
    forecasting;dynamic competition model;iteration method
    Date: 2010
    Issue Date: 2014-06-27 01:13:22 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 個體選擇模式為最常應用於研究運量之研究方法。但應用此方法需進行大規模的調查，而且不易重現。本研究提出一總體之動態城際大眾運具競爭模式，並以2007年至2009年之台鐵、高鐵、國道客運與航空運量資料進行預測分析。本研究建議總體運量分析以季資料最為恰當。因本研究目前所發展之模式基於外在環境不變的假設下，因此，短期的預測較具解釋能力，長期的預測解釋能力較差。主要的原因也是研究期間經歷金融海嘯與油價飆漲，國內之社經條件與國人之旅運行為並非處於穩定不變的情況。本研究所提出之架構可為相關研究之參考，未來亦將考量外在之
    Discrete choice model is the most used methodology for studying traveler’s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. In this study, an aggregative model is proposed. The historica
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Transportation Technology and Logistice Management] Seminar Papers

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