總體經濟變數對來台旅客人數及觀光外匯收入之影響研究

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Title:	總體經濟變數對來台旅客人數及觀光外匯收入之影響研究
Authors:	李堯賢 Lee, Yao-Hsien
Contributors:	財務管理學系 Finance
Keywords:	來台旅客人數;觀光外匯收入;向量自我廻歸模型;向量誤差修正模式;Granger因果關係 the number of foreign visitors;tourism exchange revenue;vector autoregresssion analysis (VAR);vector error correction model (VECM);Granger causality
Date:	2009
Issue Date:	2014-06-26 23:42:45 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本文針對台灣觀光旅遊業，利用平均每人實質GDP、CPI及美元對新台幣匯率等總體經濟變數建立對歷年來台旅客人數及外匯觀光收入長、短期動態之影響，並探討這些總體經濟變數中何者對來台旅客人數及觀光外匯收入較具有預測能力。Grange因果關係顯示，平均每人實質GDP對來台旅客人數有預測效果。匯率、平均每人實質GDP對觀光外匯收入具預測效果。向量誤差修正模式顯示，當來台旅客人數發生非預期的增加後，則後期來台旅客人數必須增加，才能回復長期均衡水準。至於觀光外匯收入非預期的增加，則後期觀光外匯收入必會減少，如此才能回復 his study uses macroeconomic variables such as per capita real GDP, CPI, and USD/NTD exchange rate to setup a model to investigate the short-run and long-run dynamic impacts upon the number of foreign visitors and tourism foreign exchange revenue and to e
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Finance] Seminar Papers

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